Last week the Minnesota Office of Cannabis Management announced that, its lottery for social equity applicants, originally scheduled for November 26, will be abandoned. Instead, the state is moving forward with only the long-awaited standard licensing process early next year. Previously approved social equity applicants will be allowed to automatically enter the new application process and will have a reserved pool of social equity licenses available in limited license lotteries but will no longer benefit from the significant first-mover advantage afforded by the previous system, putting the brakes on one of 2025’s most anticipated cannabis market launches.
The updated timeline is:
January 1: Deadline to request refund of license preapproval application fees.
January 15: Social equity applicant verification window begins.
January 30: Social equity applicant verification window ends.
February 18: General application window begins.
March 14: General application window ends.
May-June: Expected new lottery date.
Assuming that the state meets their timeline, and that seems likely based on their track record to date, this represents an at least 6-month delay in access to cannabis for Minnesota Adults. It’s a disheartening move for a state where Fire projects 711,261 adults over 21 per month and 1,032,841 adults aged 21+ per year will consume cannabis in 2025. With only 50,126 active patients registered with the current medical program, that’s a lot of unmet (or more accurately, unregulated) demand.
Comparing per-adult and per-basket spend in comparable markets with our estimated Minnesota consumer numbers, we estimate that, in the 6+-month window where early-moving social equity operators could have been up and operating — but for the delay —Minnesota could be leaving anywhere from $400 Million to $620 Million in cannabis sales, or up to $62 Million in cannabis-specific tax revenue on the table with this move. Michigan, Ohio, and your local weed dealer collectively rejoice.
